Monday, March 31, 2008

MLB 2008 Season Preview

My favorite time of year officially starts today: the 2008 baseball season. (I know, it officially started last week with the Red Sox-A's series in Japan, and continued with last night's Braves-Nationals game, but for me, the season hasn't started until the Yankees open up.) Here's a list of vague predictions for the league this year:

AL East:
1. Boston Red Sox -- This division is now a three-team race. The Red Sox are the favorites, of course--they're the champions until someone else takes it away from them.
2. New York Yankees -- The Yankees have two young starters in their rotation (and that could jump to three by year's end) and an entirely new coaching staff, but they still have the raw talent to make a good run at knocking the Sox from their division perch.
3. Toronto Blue Jays -- They made some good moves this offseason, and if the Red Sox and Yankees can't keep their rotations healthy, they could surprise and win this division yet.
4. Tampa Bay Rays -- No longer the joke of the league, but they're not quite contenders yet.
5. Baltimore Orioles -- The new joke of the league. Could lead the majors in losses. Still looking to trade away top talent. Incompetent management that starts in the owner's box.

AL Central:
1. Detroit Tigers -- Arguably this year's most improved team, and they weren't too shabby to start with. My pick for this year's World Series team from the AL, with their only question mark being their closer if Zumaya can't stay healthy and dominant. Todd Jones won't pick up last year's save total if he can't improve last year's ERA.
2. Cleveland Indians -- If they don't steal the division from Detroit, they're a lock for the AL wild card spot. Great rotation + great hitting = a very good team.
3. Chicago White Sox -- A solid team that won't be a serious contender, but watch out for them to play spoiler on some other contending teams late in the season.
4. Minnesota Twins -- Santana is gone, Liriano's health is a question mark, and their #3 starter is a guy named Boof. Sorry, Twin Cities, even adding the Meathook's kid brother to the lineup with the M&M Boys won't be enough to get you into contention this year.
5. Kansas City Royals -- Just like every year, they'll develop some great young talent who will then flee to larger markets and bigger paychecks. If baseball implemented a salary cap, maybe one day they could climb out of this spot.

AL West:
1. Anaheim Angels -- I still refuse to use this team's super-long new "official" name. Sometimes I even call them the California Angels. I miss Gene Mauch. Oh yeah, they're a lock to finish first in this weak division, even if Kelvim Escobar has to have his pitching arm amputated.
2. Seattle Mariners -- King Felix might be the best starter in the game right now. Ichiro will have an all-star caliber year (yet again). But that's nowhere near enough to catch the Angels.
3. Oakland A's -- Suffered some key losses this offseason. You never know what Billy Beane prospect is going to catch fire this year, and they've got a couple of good pitches, but this team is, for all intents and purposes, rebuilding this year.
4. Texas Rangers -- Also in a rebuilding year. They won't make any noise in '08.

NL East:
1. New York Mets -- Adding Johan Santana to their rotation makes them the favorite for this division, and probably for the entire NL. But there's always the chance they could choke. I mean again.
2. Philadelphia Phillies -- They added a closer, albeit an injured one, and their only real loss (Aaron Rowand) will be offset by the emergence of Shane Victorino. They're just waiting for the Mets to make a mistake.
3. Atlanta Braves -- They won't go away. This division will be a three-team race for most of the year. Bobby Cox knows three things: how to hold his liquor, how to keep his woman in line, and how to be a perennial contender.
4. Washington Nationals -- They're getting better, but I just don't see them in the playoff picture yet. Another potential spoiler team down the stretch. If they don't get to .500 this year, they won't miss it by much.
5. Florida Marlins -- Another rebuilding team. Not much more to say.

NL Central:
1. Chicago Cubs -- They could be the highest producing offense in the NL this season. Their question mark is keeping their pitchers healthy. If they can do that, they just might go to the big show in October.
2. Milwaukee Brewers -- The Brew Crew's youngsters are absolutely coming into their own this season. They'll be there to keep the Cubs honest, and if Chicago's pitching falls apart, could be this year's dark horse division champ.
3. Cincinnati Reds -- This year's candidate for Most Improved Team. They won't threaten anyone, but they're on the upswing.
4. St. Louis Cardinals -- They have some offense, but a poor and often-injured pitching staff will keep them from achieving much this year.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates -- See Kansas City Royals above.
6. Houston Astros -- Valverde is a solid closer, but Tejada is washed up and lost without his 'roids.

NL West:
1. Arizona Diamondbacks -- My pick to win this division, despite the continued presence of Randy Johnson in the rotation. Webb and Haren will more than make up for him. If they can bury the Big Cancer during the postseason, they might just make the World Series.
2. Colorado Rockies -- They might not have the success they had in 2007 (especially the late-season run), but they're still going to make some noise.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers -- Joe Torre is still missing a few pieces, but he's got the managerial skills to keep this team on the radar for most of this season.
4. San Diego Padres -- Good pitching, but lacking the offensive output to make the playoffs this year. Trevor Hoffman has at least one more great year left in him.
5. San Francisco Giants -- This team's play is as limp as the wrists of...you know what? I'm not going to go there. Barry Bonds's departure is a blessing in disguise, as no one will be paying attention to how lousy this team is this year. Could compete with Baltimore for the worst record in baseball.

Playoffs:
ALDS: Tigers over Angels, Red Sox over Indians
ALCS: Tigers over Red Sox
NLDS: Diamondbacks over Mets, Cubs over Rockies
NLCS: Diamondbacks over Cubs
World Series: Tigers over Diamondbacks

Hat tip to my good buddy Pat for pointing out that I originally had same-division teams playing each other in the ALDS.

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